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Real world examples --Time Giant predicts hurricanes
UPDATE July 23, 2009:
Hurricane forecasts for years 2006 through 2020 (see chart):
2006 through 2010 - the number of hurricanes will vary greatly from year to year.
2011 through 2015 - a similar number of hurricanes will show up every year.
2016 through 2020 - the number of hurricanes will vary greatly from year to year.
In summary, Time Giant predicts between 4 and 7 hurricanes for the 2009 Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico hurricane season.
Why fewer than 8? Time Giant says it still thinks that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season falls within a 4- to 5-year period with wild swings in yearly hurricane numbers. Additionally, in 2008 the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico saw many hurricanes: 8 to be exact. 8 to 10 hurricanes within one year are the highest numbers as hurricanes go. So, Time Giant projects that the pendulum will swing way down this year to 4 hurricanes but no more than 7 in 2009.
Here are the actual official hurricane numbers for Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico for past years: year 2008 (8), year 2007 (6), year 2006 (5), and year 2005 (13).
In 155 years, the Atlantic/Gulf region endured only 2 seasons with 12 or more hurricanes: The 2005 season which eventually produced 13 hurricanes (including Hurricane Katrina which crossed Louisiana, USA) and the 1969 season produced 12.
This updated forecast posted on today, July 23, 2009, is based on data only through May 26, 2006. On May 26, 2006 the official hurricane numbers for the year 2005 were added to my database and used to post the May 26, 2006 update. Previous to the May 2006 forecast was my original forecast, it was made earlier in the spring of 2006 and it used data only through September 10, 2005. The picture chart I created to make my original forecast is shown to you below.
Picture Chart--Hurricane Tracking Time Giant Style
In the hurricane chart below, the green Time Giant hurricane forecast curve falls downward from a peak in 2005. When applied to hurricane data, the peak in 2005 forecasts wild differences in hurricane numbers. Valleys always mean even and similar numbers (for 4 to 5 years afterwards). Peaks always mean wild and variable hurricane numbers (for 4 to 5 years afterwards).
Hurricane seasons do cycle between low numbers and high numbers, or more specifically, they cycle between periods of similar hurricane numbers and periods of dissimilar hurricane numbers. Oh, yes, and Time Giant wants to remind you that the Mayan Calendar runs out at the end of hurricane season in the year 2012.
"I could report to you that the conflict is almost over. This I cannot do. We face more cost, more loss, and more agony. For the end is not yet." L. B. J., 1967.
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