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| Science Daily | Simple Online Bookkeeping | Sciencemag.org | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Time Giant Momentum Indicator Basal Price Cycle Hypothesis My tentative hypothesis is if a single price cycle is shared by a set of financial instruments and the cycle has a stable cycle frequency then utilizing that one price cycle will reliably provide information about the rate of change in price for all members of the set. It seems that my formulas have latched onto such a cycle. I give this single price cycle a name--the one basal cycle of price movement (to coin a term). Basal expresses the concept of forming a base, a main element, a starting point to which other elements are added. The "one basal price cycle" then is the main elemental cycle in short-run price movement. I speculate that the "one basal price cycle" exists. Most days I feel I only succeeded in giving a new and ridiculous name to one of those 6, 7, or 10 day cycles that commonly appear in so many financial markets. Other days I feel that I measure a real and unique price phenomenon. In any event, the Time Giant momentum indicator uses a traditional measure of price momentum; it uses the simple percentage rate of change in price. I employed my knowledge of economic forecasting to create a moving average momentum indicator that actually leads. I call my leading indicator the Time Giant momentum indicator [stand high upon the shoulders of the time giant and see further up the road]. The only data required to make forecasts are closing prices and time. The "one basal price cycle" is called variously by me on this website "the holy grail" and "the holy grail of investing" and "basal price cycle" and "basic cycle" and "short-term basal price cycle" and "price cycle" and "one basal cycle" and "basal unit of price movement" and "basal unit cycle" and "basic price cycle" and "short-term price cycle" and "short-term cycle" and "short-term price movement" and "prime price cycle" and "only prime price cycle" and "one prime price cycle" and "basic cycle of stock price movement" and "smallest price cycle" and "one basic price cycle" and "primal price cycle" and "primeval price cycle". In summary, the main point set forth is regardless of how the long-term market trend is slanted (upwards, sideways or downwards), the short-term trend of the one basal price cycle remains fixed yet resilient. The Time Giant momentum indicator uses this resiliency to predict short-term changes in price momentum for all members of the set. Here is the guide I use to interpret Time Giant's peaks and valleys.
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Last revised: July 3, 2010. |
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