Time Giant Momentum Indicator

Price Forecasts For Years 2009 and 2010
Were Made on July 27, 2009

Time Giant forecasts interest rates and other market rates.

U.S. Federal Funds Rate monthly average for August 2009 and September 2009 will decline or stay steady.  In any event, the two months together will stay below 0.16%.

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Sweden Riksbank Repo Rate monthly average for August 2009 through November 2009 will remain at or above 0.30%.  That is, the Repo Rate will not fall very much below 0.30% from August 2009 through November 2009. 

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Sweden 3-month Treasury Bills monthly average for August 2009 through November 2009 will rise above or remain near its July 2009 level of 0.1822%.  In other words, this 3-month Treasury Bill will not fall very much below its July 2009 rate of 0.1822% over the coming four months (August 2009 through November 2009).

Sweden 6-month Treasury Bills monthly average for August 2009 through November 2009 will rise above or remain near its July 2009 level of 0.1896%.  In other words, this 6-month Treasury Bill will not fall very much below the rate of 0.1896% during August 2009 through November 2009.

Definition: "A Treasury Bill is a short-term debt instrument issued by the Swedish National Debt Office. The duration is usually up to one year. Treasury Bills are used to finance the government's short-term borrowing requirement."
Definition found here: Central Bank of Sweden

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Euro Market Rates, maturity 3 months, Japan, monthly average from August 2009 to September 2009 will fall or stay steady near its July 2009 level of 0.3596%.

Euro Market Rates, maturity 3 months, GB, monthly average for August 2009 through November 2009 will stabilize at or even rise above 0.7861.  In either event, over the next four months this rate will stay above 0.7861%

Definition: "A market rate is the rate agents are prepared to pay for various types of credits. It is priced according to supply and demand."
Definition found here: Central Bank of Sweden

Definition: "The euro market is a loan market without underlying collateral with fixed-term deposits, with the highest time limit being one year. The deposit market is mainly part of the interbank trading where one can follow the rates applying for some of the main currencies in the local interbank market (the bank internal market for trade in currencies and debt securities)." 
Definition found here: Central Bank of Sweden

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International Government Bonds, maturity 5 years, U.S. monthly average for August 2009 through October 2009 will rise or stay steady because this rate will feel pressure pushing it upward.  In either event, over the next three months this rate will not fall much below an average amount of 2.4484 %.  

International Government Bonds, maturity 5 years,  Japan monthly average for August 2009 through September 2009 will continue its downturn or perhaps level out near 0.6843%.  If a transition to higher rates occurs then this transition will not commence until October 2009 or November 2009.  In any event, September 2009 should not see an appreciable rate rise above 0.6843% for this bond. 

Definition: "International Government Bonds are Government securities issued outside of Sweden."
Definition found here: Central Bank of Sweden

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February 1, 2011

OUTCOMES OF PREDICTIONS

8 Predictions  4 Hits

Source of data: http://www.thecommunitybanker.com/fedfundsrate-monthly.htm
http://www.riksbank.com/templates/stat.aspx?id=17216

Prediction: "U.S. Federal Funds Rate monthly average for August 2009 and September 2009 will... stay below 0.16%."
Outcome:  August rate was .16 and September rate was .15
Hit/Miss/NC: Hit

Prediction: "Repo Rate will not fall very much below 0.30% from August 2009 through November 2009".
Outcome:  Repo Rate declined to .25 in August.  The rate remained at .25 from September 2009 through November 2009 and through May 2010.
Hit/Miss/NC: Hit

Prediction: "3-month Treasury Bill will not fall very much below its July 2009 rate of 0.1822% over the coming four months (August 2009 through November 2009).
Outcome:  Swedish 3-month T-Bill took a drop to .1593 in August and dropped to .1518 in September. Then this rate rose to .1755 in October and rose again to .1771 in November.  This rate rose almost steadily and reached .2805 in May of 2010.
Hit/Miss/NC: Miss.

Prediction: "6-month Treasury Bill will not fall very much below the rate of 0.1896% during August 2009 through November 2009."
Outcome:  The Sweden 6-month T-Bill fell for two months then recovered.
Hit/Miss/NC:  NC (not clear)

Prediction: "Euro Market Rates, maturity 3 months, Japan, monthly average from August 2009 to September 2009 will fall or stay steady near its July 2009 level of 0.3596%."
Outcome:  August rate was higher but September and November were lower.
Hit/Miss/NC:  Hit

Prediction: "Euro Market Rates, maturity 3 months, GB, monthly average for August 2009 through November 2009 will stabilize at or even rise above 0.7861.
Outcome:  Sank like a rock to .4829
Hit/Miss/NC:  Miss

Prediction: "Over the next three months this rate will not fall much below an average amount of 2.4484 %." [International Government Bonds, maturity 5 years, U.S. monthly average]
Outcome:  Sank like a rock to 2.32% in October 2009.
Hit/Miss/NC:  Miss

Prediction: International Government Bonds, maturity 5 years, 
Japan monthly average for August 2009 through September 2009
will continue its downturn or perhaps level out near 0.6843%"
Outcome:  This rate fell to .681 in August and fell to .5995 on September 2009.
Hit/Miss/NC: Hit

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Last revised: July 27, 2009.